The Morning Brief
Futures are split down the middle this morning: Dow and S&P contracts firm up while Nasdaq 100 futures slip, and that divide tells you everything about what traders are weighing before the bell.
Overnight, the macro picture is Middle East risk meeting a China tech surprise.
Saudi Arabia's coalition says it intercepted two ballistic missiles fired by Houthi forces toward Khamis Mushait, a day after a deadly strike shut the Riyadh airport, prompting Delta (DAL) to push its Saudi Arabia launch back to 2027. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told markets Iran's economy is "collapsing," a line that's doing some of the lifting behind the Dow and S&P futures bid even as oil (USO) pushes higher, up nearly 2% on the day and now up more than 118% year to date. In Europe, German CPI ran hot: September came in at 3.3% year over year and 0.6% month over month, both in line with estimates but accelerating from August's 2.9% and 0.2% readings, a reminder the ECB's inflation fight isn't over. In China, the PBOC cleared Visa (V) to begin preparations for a domestic bankcard clearing institution, a genuine regulatory opening traders have wanted for years. Crypto slid overnight, with bitcoin, ether, XRP and dogecoin all lower as oil climbed.
The other overnight story is memory chips, and it's hitting the Nasdaq hard.
China's CXMT reported progress on a proprietary memory transistor structure that rivals what Samsung and SK Hynix are chasing, and Elon Musk separately said China can "out-scale the world" but that advanced memory "will be harder to solve." Micron (MU) dropped nearly 4% and SanDisk (SNDK) fell 6% in the reaction, even as SanDisk still sits up over 526% year to date. Nasdaq futures are down triple digits on the memory group alone.
Mega-cap AI spending remains the other through-line.
Zuckerberg defended Meta's (META) capex, saying he's ready to "write the check" for up to $200 billion to dominate AI for "decades to come," and the stock is up over 3% on it. Character.AI filed for Chapter 11, with Disney (DIS) lined up as a $20 million stalking-horse bidder for key assets, a sharp reminder that not every AI story has pricing power.
Single names to watch:
Stellantis (STLA) shipments fell 1% year over year as a North America slump (down 12% on planned Jeep downtime) offset European gains. Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) popped after-hours on a new Nvidia-collaborated power board for AI data centers.
On the radar today:
UnitedHealth (UNH) beat on both EPS and sales before the bell and raised FY2026 guidance. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report before the open, setting the tone for bank earnings season, alongside Johnson & Johnson, Domino's and Albertsons.
Bottom line: futures are pricing calmer geopolitics against a messier memory-chip trade, and today's bank earnings will decide which narrative actually drives the tape.