The Midday Tape
Stocks are ripping on a midterm result that flipped both chambers, but a hot prices component buried inside an otherwise soft jobs report is keeping the rally from being a clean risk-on affair.
Midterms reset the tape, data complicates it.
The Dow is up over 1,100 points at midday after Democrats took the House and Senate, with the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) both firmly green and small caps (IWM) participating. Underneath the political jolt, the data is mixed: ADP private payrolls came in at just 86,000, a soft number that argues for a patient Fed, but ISM Services printed a healthy 54.5 with new orders at 55.9 and the prices-paid component running hot at 73. That combination, weak hiring next to sticky services inflation, is showing up in the cross-asset tape: Treasuries (TLT) are bid, the dollar (UUP) is soft, and gold (GLD) is up 3.3%, hedging demand that's unusual to see alongside a four-figure Dow rally.
The AI trade is splitting down the middle.
Apple (AAPL) is the session's standout, up 6.6% and the subject of heavy desk chatter on "what's going on." On the other side, Nvidia (NVDA) is off 2.1% and Intel (INTC) is down 5.3%, extending a slide that's wiped out hundreds of billions in market cap over the past four months, with fresh competitive pressure from AMD in the headlines too. SpaceX (SPCX) is down 3.4%, tied to Texas election results weighing on Musk-linked names, and Trump Media is sliding on the same midterm overhang. Dan Ives is out flagging that a "blue tidal wave" could slow the pace of the AI buildout, a narrative traders are clearly pricing into the Musk and policy-sensitive corners of the tape even as the broader mega-cap complex rallies.
Earnings are doing real work today.
McDonald's (MCD) is up 5.2% and is the single biggest contributor to the Dow's point gain after a Q3 adjusted EPS beat. Peabody (BTU) is the session's worst performer by far, down 19.1% despite declaring its quarterly dividend alongside Q3 results, a sharp reaction that's dragging coal and energy sentiment. Insulet (PODD) reported Q3 results and unveiled a $1 billion buyback. Riot Platforms (RIOT) and SolarEdge (SEDG) both posted Q3 numbers this morning, keeping crypto-mining and solar names in focus. Cinemark (CNK) is up 4.6% after Wedbush and MoffettNathanson both raised price targets to $46 in the wake of its print. Oil (USO) is down 4.5%, a standout laggard inside the commodity complex even as gold firms.
Still ahead this afternoon:
a dense after-the-bell slate including Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings, Applovin, CVS Health, Allstate, Albemarle and dozens more, which should sharpen the read on AI infrastructure spend, chip demand and consumer health into the close. Watch Treasury yields and the dollar for confirmation on whether today's soft-ADP, hot-prices mix holds through the afternoon.
Bottom line: the midterm result is the engine behind today's broad rally, but a hot services-prices print and a clear rotation out of AI and Musk-linked names show the enthusiasm has limits.