The Morning Brief
Futures are trying to stabilize after Friday's AI-led rout, but the overnight tape gives traders more to chew on than reassurance.
China's data dump beat the Street, and the market shrugged.
Q3 GDP came in at 4.5% year-over-year versus 4.4% expected (4.3% prior), industrial production topped estimates at 5.5%, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.2% versus a 5.3% estimate. Fixed asset investment stayed negative at -7.2%, little changed. The beat didn't translate into a China (FXI) bounce, the ETF is lower in recent action and sits down double digits year-to-date, a reminder that stimulus skepticism still outweighs headline data surprises. Overseas, the Bank of England is scrutinizing Barclays over claims traders misrepresented private credit exposure, and Volkswagen is pushing for a pay freeze as German union talks open, both signs that credit and labor friction in Europe are building under the surface. Geopolitically, the Journal reported Putin has proposed a summit with Trump and Xi to discuss a Ukraine deal, a headline that's helping keep oil bid alongside Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments this morning tying September inflation to an "energy shock," a framing futures took as dovish enough to lift Dow and S&P contracts. Bitcoin is holding above $80,000 but ETF inflows are cooling, and crypto bettors aren't buying Trump's "complete and total" endorsement of Netanyahu ahead of Israel's race.
The AI trade is still digesting Friday's damage.
The Nasdaq closed out a weekly loss with the Fear and Greed Index pinned in "Extreme Fear" territory. Micron (MU) dropped 5.6% as DRAM-linked funds saw their biggest daily outflow on bubble fears, Nvidia (NVDA) slid into a correction after a rising-wedge breakdown, and Oracle shed nearly half a trillion dollars in value, hitting Larry Ellison's net worth directly. Meta (META) fell nearly 4% with reports its AI spending could hit $205 billion in 2027 feeding the skepticism, and Tesla (TSLA) and the broader mega-cap complex (QQQ down 2.5%) are all lower on the week. Michael Burry's warning that stocks face "15-20 years of poor real returns" is making the rounds as the bubble debate sharpens.
Single names to watch:
Intel got a JPMorgan upgrade to Neutral with an $85 target, drawing fresh attention after last week's swings. Accenture is reportedly weighing a $1.5 billion sale of its Greater China business after unsolicited interest. XCF Global is up roughly 65% premarket, one of twenty names moving before the bell. Apple (AAPL), up slightly, is a relative winner from Trump's Russia tariff waiver, which also strips a cost advantage from CF and CVR Partners.
On the radar today:
A heavy regional-bank earnings slate including Fifth Third, Western Alliance, Zions, Wintrust and Washington Trust, plus Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics as a steel-demand read, and AGNC as a mortgage-REIT gauge on rates. Options markets are already pricing a sharp move for Tesla and IBM ahead of their reports later this week.
Bottom line: futures are bouncing on an energy-shock inflation narrative and a China data beat, but last week's AI unwind hasn't been repaired, and today's bank earnings will test whether credit and demand trends can offset the bubble anxiety.