The Morning Brief
Futures point higher into a packed earnings Tuesday, but the overnight tape is really a story about oil, not tech, after fresh Iran escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitics is driving the macro tape.
Reuters, citing Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy, reported two tankers were set ablaze by mines south of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is now threatening the undersea cables that carry most of the world's internet and commercial data traffic. Chevron and Exxon hit 52-week highs overnight as Brent pushed to five-month highs, and the IEA's Birol said the agency would consider releasing more emergency oil reserves if needed. Oil-fund proxy United States Oil Fund (USO) is still only modestly lower on the day, but the geopolitical premium is real. On the data side, China's PBOC held both the one-year and five-year loan prime rates steady, Germany's producer prices ran hotter than expected (1.9% month over month versus 1.5% estimated), and the U.K. delivered a mixed labor read: unemployment fell more than forecast to 4.7% and hiring surged, but wage growth cooled to 3.7% and claimant counts rose more than expected, a soft spot the Bank of England will note.
AI capex and chip demand remain the dominant equity narrative.
Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have placed more than $35 billion in Nvidia (NVDA) chip orders, a signal that China demand is still running hot despite export frictions. Amazon (AMZN) is doubling down too, unveiling plans for over $18 billion in German data-center, AI and logistics investment for 2027, on top of an expanded 3M (MMM) partnership that includes a warrant for Amazon to buy roughly $521 million of 3M stock, a deal that lifted 3M shares after hours. Jim Cramer is sounding a note of caution ahead of Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon earnings this week, calling it "too early to say the coast is clear" on data-center spending. Nasdaq futures are up over 1% in the premarket even as sentiment gauges stay stuck in "extreme fear."
Crypto is diverging from the risk-on mood.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin all slipped overnight despite elevated greed readings elsewhere, while BlackRock rolled out a new Bitcoin ETF built around downside protection, a sign issuers are now underwriting against the asset's own volatility rather than just chasing beta.
Single-stock movers:
Synchrony Financial (SYF) beat on EPS and raised full-year guidance ahead of today's open. Steel Dynamics (STLD) missed on earnings despite a sales beat and traded lower after hours. FreightCar America (RAIL) slashed 2026 revenue and delivery guidance and was repeatedly halted. Apple (AAPL) was downgraded to Hold at Loop Capital.
On the radar today:
a bank- and industrial-heavy earnings slate including GE Aerospace, 3M, General Motors, RTX, Northrop Grumman, Verizon, Coca-Cola and Halliburton before the bell, with Netflix, Capital One and Interactive Brokers after the close. Also watch for the Transportation Department's expected certification of Boeing's 737 Max 10.
Bottom line: the Strait of Hormuz, not the Fed, is setting the overnight risk tone, and traders will use today's earnings barrage to decide whether AI capex optimism or oil-driven macro anxiety wins the session.