The Morning Brief
Treasury yields are doing the driving again, and overnight weakness in crypto and a cautious Asia session suggest the move isn't done.
Rates remain the story.
Wednesday's session saw the Dow shed more than 300 points as yields surged, and the move carried into the overnight session, dragging Bitcoin below $84,000 and pulling Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin lower with it. Strategist James Thorne pushed back on the idea that another Fed hike is the right response, calling it a "misdiagnosis" since higher rates can't manufacture oil supply or unwind tariffs. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) sits down 11.5% year to date, a reminder of how much of this move has already been in motion.
Asia delivered the hard data overnight, and it leaned bullish on AI.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) posted September revenue up 54.6% year over year, and Samsung's (SSNLF) preliminary Q3 profit guidance topped estimates as AI demand continues to outstrip memory supply, a read-through that matters for Micron (MU) and the broader chip complex. Japan's current account data beat expectations, and Germany's August trade balance also came in ahead of estimates, modest but welcome. Seven & i Holdings (SVNDY) reported Q2 EPS of $0.17, down from $0.20 a year ago, though full-year sales guidance came in above Street estimates. Fast Retailing (FRCOY) also reports today. On the friction side, Google (GOOGL) hit a snag in its $15 billion Finland AI buildout after regulators ordered a halt at two data centers pending environmental review.
The AI financing debate is getting louder.
Oracle, Broadcom (AVGO) and SpaceX (SPCX) are reportedly pursuing blockbuster debt deals to fund chip purchases, per the Journal, underscoring how much of this buildout is now leverage-driven. That lands awkwardly next to Michael Burry's overnight warning that Anthropic's valuation could buy 78 profitable S&P 500 companies outright. Alphabet's Isomorphic Labs is separately in funding talks at a valuation of at least $40 billion, and Needham reiterated its Buy on Alphabet (GOOGL) with a $450 target. Marvell (MRVL) got a price-target bump from UBS to $350 as the chip rally narrative stays intact even as Nvidia (NVDA) slipped 0.7%.
Single names to watch.
Levi Strauss (LEVI) fell 5% after an executive flagged soft European traffic tied to warm weather, even as BTIG held its Buy. Applied Digital (APLD), down 6.1%, reports this morning. Wolfspeed (WOLF) jumped on a Pentagon loan commitment, while Resources Connection (RGP) tumbled after-hours on soft Q2 sales guidance. Argenx (ARGX) cut a Sjögren's trial for futility but advanced a celiac drug into Phase 3, a wash for sentiment.
On the radar today:
PepsiCo (PEP), Helen of Troy (HELE), Tilray (TLRY), NovaGold (NG) and AngioDynamics (ANGO) all report before the bell, with Applied Digital adding to the pre-market earnings load.
Bottom line: yields are setting the tone again, and until they stabilize, AI enthusiasm and rate anxiety will keep fighting for control of the tape.