The Morning Brief
Futures are trying to shake off a oil shock and a bond scare at the same time, with Delta's earnings landing before the bell to set the tone for the session.
Rates are the story overnight.
Pimco tells the FT that the 10-year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000, and Ray Dalio is out warning that rising yields could put stocks in danger, flagging that corporate cash flow is deteriorating even as headline earnings keep climbing. That call lines up with Thursday's tape, when the Nasdaq dropped more than 300 points as oil prices surged, a move tied to escalating Iran tensions after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is "starving" Tehran's regime and the New York Times reported the Pentagon is drawing up new strike plans. Oil's move shows up in the United States Oil Fund (USO), now up 113.6% year to date, while long bonds (TLT) have only partially caught a bid.
Asia and Europe add to the cautious tone.
Japan household spending for August rose just 0.1% month over month against a 0.5% estimate, a soft print that keeps pressure on the Bank of Japan's normalization path. SoftBank (SFTBY) is reportedly seeking $100 billion from Gulf investors to expand its AI bet, and Nvidia (NVDA)-backed Firmus scrapped what would have been Australia's second-largest IPO after weak demand, a sign that AI-infrastructure fundraising is getting pickier even as the spending narrative stays intact.
The AI and mega-cap trade is splitting.
Nvidia is reportedly investing in chip rival d-Matrix even as its own shares sit down 2.9% on the day. Meta (META) escalated its feud with TikTok, banning ByteDance ads across Facebook and Instagram. OpenAI pushed back on reports tying staff departures to safety concerns, saying three employees violated policy and that third-party safety assessors are coming. Elon Musk's spectrum deal for SpaceX (SPCX) is being called a "very big deal" by Musk and Jim Cramer alike, pressuring telecom names, but Cathie Wood's Ark is reportedly selling SpaceX alongside Meta, AMD and Google even as Dan Ives adds SpaceX and Dell to his AI 30 basket. SpaceX shares are down 4.2% on the day despite the headlines.
Crypto had a rough night.
Bitcoin slid to $80,000 as Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin triggered a $1 billion liquidation cascade, and Bitwise's dogecoin ETF (BWOW) is shutting down after less than a year.
Premarket movers:
Veea (VEEA) is up roughly 34% to 49% across sessions, Zhibao Technology (ZBAO) surged over 60% after hours, and Humana (HUM) is higher after CMS awarded its largest Medicare Advantage contract four stars, while CVS and Alignment Healthcare slid on downgraded ratings. American Express (AXP) was fined $350 million by the OCC over anti-money laundering lapses but says it won't affect 2026 or 2027 guidance.
On the radar today:
Delta Air Lines reports before the bell, the first major read on airline demand and fuel costs into a rising-oil backdrop.
Bottom line: oil and yields are doing the driving this morning, and Delta's numbers will tell traders whether the consumer and the cost side can absorb both.