The Morning Brief

Wall Street opens Thursday split between a chip selloff that Dan Ives says still has room to fall and a bull case from Tom Lee that calls the whole thing overdone, with a jobs report looming Friday that could decide who's right.

The macro setup is shakier than the headline numbers suggest.

Gold (GLD) is up sharply and oil (USO) has been hammered, a combination that points to demand worries even as the dollar (UUP) softens. Jim Cramer is flagging Friday's jobs report as the print that could "repeal" the post-midterm rally, arguing the election outcome never actually upended the business cycle. Treasuries (TLT) are firmer, which fits a market bracing for a weaker labor read rather than a hawkish surprise.

The AI and chip trade is the fight to watch.

Ives sees another 12% downside in semiconductor names (SOXX) after the recent slide, while Lee calls the AI drawdown an overreaction and is calling for a 20% tech rally from here. That debate gets more interesting after the FT reported Microsoft (MSFT) walked away from a multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal with UK's Nscale, a sign the hyperscalers are getting pickier about capacity commitments even as spending headlines keep flowing. Apple (AAPL) is in its own crosscurrent: its slow split from Qualcomm is easing as China Android demand rebounds, though handset revenue is still seen slipping as Qualcomm pushes through price hikes. Both stocks closed up big into this morning, Apple up 5.4% and Microsoft up 6.8%, so today's setup is about whether that strength holds against the chip-sector doubts.

Overseas earnings season is in full swing and mostly constructive.

Sony lifted guidance on a Spider-Man box-office hit and gaming strength, Nintendo posted an 11% jump in first-half profit, and Hon Hai (Foxconn) logged record October revenue, a read-through for AI hardware demand. In Europe, Deutsche Telekom, ENGIE, Air France-KLM and HENSOLDT all raised full-year guidance, while Maersk hiked its outlook again on freight rates, a rare bright spot for global trade. Commerzbank and ArcelorMittal also reported. The friction point is China: Beijing blocked ABB's robotics division sale to SoftBank, the latest sign that industrial deals touching China face a harder regulatory path, while BYD and CATL keep grinding out global EV battery share gains.

Single-name action:

AstraZeneca made a $10 billion offer for Rhythm Pharmaceuticals. Siemens Healthineers is spinning off its diagnostics unit. UBS is cutting jobs in London. ASE Technology Holding (ASX) signed fresh Taiwan facility deals but the stock is down 4%.

On the radar today:

a packed earnings slate including Airbnb (ABNB), Axon (AXON), Cloudflare (NET), DraftKings (DKNG), Affirm (AFRM) and Cardinal Health (CAH), all reporting around today's session.

Bottom line: the tape is strong on the surface, but the chip debate and Friday's jobs number are what decide whether this rally has legs.