The Closing Bell
Stocks closed higher Monday even as the Middle East lit up with fresh attacks, proving once again that the tape cares more about Nvidia's chart than Houthi drones.
The macro backdrop was stronger than the headlines suggested.
ISM Services PMI printed 54.9 with the S&P Global Composite at 58.4, confirming the service economy is still expanding briskly, though the Prices Paid component at 74 keeps inflation pressure in the conversation. The dollar (UUP) pushed to an 18-month high and Treasuries (TLT) slipped 0.5% as rate-cut bets got a little less certain. Geopolitics supplied the day's wild card: Yemen's Houthis reportedly struck a Saudi Aramco refinery at Rabigh, a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh issued a security alert, yet oil (USO) fell 2.3% on reports that Middle East exports have climbed above pre-war levels. Treasury Secretary Bessent added fuel to the "max pressure" narrative on X, touting Iran's plunging rial and collapsed crude loadings. Net effect: crude down, risk assets up, a disconnect the desk will be watching closely if the attacks escalate.
Mega-cap tech did the heavy lifting again.
Nvidia (NVDA) rallied 2.1% to a fresh all-time high as traders chatter about a $6 trillion valuation by month-end, dragging Broadcom (AVGO) up in tandem on a Morgan Stanley note arguing both names are insulated from a feared 32-gigawatt AI power shortfall. Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) all advanced, with Scotiabank reiterating Microsoft to $615. Software names caught a bid broadly as falling oil freed up risk appetite. Amazon (AMZN) was the mega-cap laggard, essentially flat, with Robinhood's retail crowd reportedly selling into the Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla strength rather than chasing it.
Single-stock action was a mixed bag.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) jumped on a Citi upgrade to Buy, Virtu Financial (VIRT) rose on a JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight, and Illumina (ILMN) and Danaher (DHR) climbed on bullish price-target hikes. Brazil was the session's standout theme outside the U.S., with an election shock sending EWZ and related ETFs sharply higher and broker XP notching its best day ever. On the downside, Nike (NKE) slid after an S&P credit downgrade, Camping World (CWH) and Winnebago (WGO) dropped on weak FY26 EBITDA guidance, Constellation Brands (STZ) sits at 11-year lows ahead of its print, and aerospace and defense names broadly lagged on worries SpaceX is sucking up investment dollars. Credo Technology (CRDO) fell on a Stifel price-target cut, and Nebius (NBIS) slipped after Form 4 filings showed executive selling.
After the bell and tomorrow:
Today's earnings slate was thin on market-moving names, dominated by small- and micro-caps. Watch oil headlines overnight given the Hormuz incident and Saudi refinery strike, the dollar's strength for any follow-through, and whether Nvidia's run toward $6 trillion keeps dragging the tape higher into Tuesday.
Bottom line: traders bought the AI rally and shrugged off Middle East escalation, leaving crude, not geopolitics, as the market's actual fear gauge today.