The Morning Brief
Futures are calm but the real action overnight is geopolitical, with China holding rare-earth cards close and Fed officials still talking tough on inflation just as risk assets try to grind higher.
Overnight:
China trimmed rare-earth shipments to the US ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, according to the Financial Times, a signal Beijing is keeping leverage in reserve even as Treasury Secretary Bessent met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng over the weekend to smooth the runway for the talks. Adding to the China tech story, memory maker CXMT said it has reached advanced DRAM mass production, a direct challenge to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron (MU) that lands right before Micron's own earnings later this week. In Europe, Ireland's Data Protection Commission hit Google (GOOGL) with a €403 million fine over location-data processing, the latest in a run of EU privacy actions against Big Tech. Crypto ran hot: bitcoin touched $82,000 overnight with ether, XRP and dogecoin also higher as ETF inflows built. In premarket names, Lobo Technologies jumped roughly 32%, Mizuho upgraded American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) and Invitation Homes (INVH) to Outperform, and Evercore lifted Macerich (MAC).
Fed and rates:
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari told Fox News Sunday that inflation is still too high and extends beyond oil prices, even while calling the labor market "quite robust" and the economy resilient despite wars. Separately, the FT reported the Fed and Bank of England are stepping up scrutiny of bank exposure to trading firms after the Jane Street loss, a reminder regulators are still probing plumbing risk in leveraged books. Long bonds (TLT) closed Friday down 0.7% as yields firmed heading into the new week.
AI and mega-cap:
Nvidia (NVDA) keeps failing to retest its record high even after Friday's 1.2% gain, with Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft and Oracle (ORCL) all cited as headwinds build around AI capex. Oracle stays pressured on "Project Jupiter" data-center concerns, and Broadcom (AVGO) remains in bear-market territory, though analysts are starting to flag a floor. Jensen Huang said he isn't afraid of paying California's billionaire tax, but flagged the pace of AI development itself as his real worry.
Stock movers:
Boeing (BA) fell into the weekend ahead of the summit and a possible large China order, even after closing Friday up 0.6% at $198.27. Costco (COST) is flirting with a bear market heading into earnings this week, Nike (NKE) hit a new low as On Holding competition intensifies and S&P 500 removal risk builds, and Oklo and NuScale (SMR) got hit hard as shorts pressed SMR-linked names. Paramount (PSKY) is closing in on a California AG deal to clear its Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) merger, weighing a $1.5 billion investment as New York and Connecticut push for more concessions.
On the radar today:
The Trump-Xi summit backdrop dominates positioning all week, with rare earths and tariffs the key swing factor for chipmakers and industrials. Micron and Costco earnings loom later this week, and expect more Fed speak after Kashkari's Sunday remarks. Today's earnings slate is thin, headlined by Grifols (GRFS).
Bottom line: With China holding rare-earth leverage into the summit and the Fed still flagging sticky inflation, this week's bid rests on headlines the market can't control.