The Morning Brief
Futures are trying to shrug off an overnight risk-off scare in Asia, where surging yields and crude did the damage before oil reversed hard into the US open.
Rates and oil set the tone.
Asian equities bled overnight as rising US Treasury yields and a spike in crude prices squeezed risk assets, but oil (USO) reversed hard by the time European desks opened, down more than 3% on the day even as it still sits up sharply on the year. That retreat helped index futures pare early losses. Stateside, the macro backdrop stays uneasy: mortgage rates have pushed past 7%, and diesel prices are grinding toward $7 a gallon with the White House running low on levers to cool it off. Iran remains the wildcard for crude: Trump rejected Tehran's Hormuz ceasefire proposal over the weekend and told Axios he expects renewed talks this week, keeping a geopolitical premium in the tape.
China thaw, chip curbs blur.
The weekend's biggest global headline: Trump and Xi agreed to a $30 billion tariff deal and floated "more favorable tariff treatment" for US-China goods, a detente landing just as Beijing reportedly green-lit Nvidia's (NVDA) RTX PRO 5500 chips for Alibaba and ByteDance, even with US export curbs still nominally in place. Tariff relief paired with a chip crack is the kind of combination that can move the whole semiconductor complex at the open.
AI spending skepticism keeps mega-cap under pressure.
Meta (META) shed roughly 3.4% after Goldman questioned the payoff on its AI capex, wiping close to $9 billion off Zuckerberg's net worth in a single session. Retail investors leaned into the weakness, dumping a record $300 million out of tech ETFs in the latest session with chip funds taking the biggest hit. Micron (MU) heads into this week's earnings with memory prices still climbing and supply nowhere near enough to meet demand, a setup the desk is watching closely even though Micron itself isn't due to report today.
Movers to watch.
Apple (AAPL) is absorbing a fresh $5.7 billion patent verdict tied to iPhone and Apple Watch haptics, with roughly $1.4 billion flagged as the likely near-term entitlement pending appeal. AppLovin (APP) remains stuck in a bear market despite bullish growth forecasts. NIO inked a battery-swapping tie-up with Geely over the weekend, and Nu Holdings is in focus on reports of $13 billion Monzo acquisition talks. Premarket, Webuy Global is jumping roughly 15% on strong H1 revenue growth and a narrowed net loss.
On the radar today.
Jefferies (JEF) and Vail Resorts (MTN) report after the close. Kodiak Sciences hosts an 8:30 AM webcast on Phase 3 DAYBREAK topline data for its wet AMD candidate. SpaceX (SPCX) is still targeting today for its first orbital Starship attempt. REITs stay under watch after Realty Income and Medical Properties Trust both flagged fresh weakness tied to the rate backdrop, and crypto desks are eyeing Circle's leadership shakeup after its CFO and a co-founder both stepped down over the weekend.
Bottom line: a China tariff detente and a fading oil spike are giving bulls cover, but 7% mortgage rates, AI-spending doubts, and an unresolved Iran standoff mean the rally has to work for every point today.