The Morning Brief
Futures are grinding higher into a jobs report that could decide whether the bond selloff that's rattled global markets overnight extends into October.
Rates and inflation are the story investors can't shake.
Tokyo's core CPI ran hot for September, up 2.7% year over year against a 2.4% estimate and well above August's 1.8% print, reviving bets that the Bank of Japan has less room to stay patient. That added fuel to a global government bond selloff that's pushed Treasury yields to 24-year highs, a move dragging on U.S.-listed European banks including Deutsche Bank (DB), BBVA (BBVA), Santander (SAN) and ING (ING) in premarket trading on inflation and funding-cost worries. Fed Governor Lisa Cook added to the unease Thursday, flagging AI-driven labor disruption and supply bottlenecks as inflation risks for 2027 and warning that inflation expectations can't be allowed to unanchor. Prediction markets, oddly, are still pricing some chance of an October hike rather than a cut. All of it sets up this morning's September jobs report as the swing factor for where yields, and stocks, go next. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) are both higher in futures, with the Fear & Greed gauge still stuck in "fear" territory even as the index closed Thursday little changed.
AI capital flows remain the dominant market narrative.
Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly looking to offload $8 billion of Nvidia (NVDA) chips to outside investors, even as Broadcom (AVGO) is said to be amassing $60 billion to fund custom silicon for Anthropic. Trump added another twist overnight, saying the government "might" take equity stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic the way it did with Intel. Cathie Wood's Ark trimmed Palantir (PLTR) even as Peter Thiel talks up booming AI demand, and Jim Cramer is highlighting a software comeback in Salesforce (CRM), Veeva (VEEV) and Palantir after bears who bet AI would gut the group "blew up." Meta (META) faces a potential $40 billion penalty after a New Mexico jury found it misled Facebook users on privacy, a headline risk sitting alongside the AI enthusiasm.
Dealmaking is driving the premarket tape.
ON Semiconductor (ON) and Synaptics (SYNA) are both up sharply after ON agreed to acquire Synaptics for $123 a share in cash under an amended merger deal. Nike (NKE) remains under pressure, sitting near its lowest level since 2013 after Thursday's mixed quarter, soft FY27 guidance, and fresh warnings from CEO Elliott Hill that China pressure is "about to get worse," with roughly $230 billion in market cap already erased. Mattel (MAT) is the standout premarket, rallying hard on a reported $6 billion Authentic Brands buyout approach that could mark its best day since 1996.
On the radar today:
the September jobs report headlines the macro calendar, Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are in focus heading into earnings on Venezuela and LNG exposure, oil (USO) is firmer on Kazakhstan output cuts and Russian diesel export curbs, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins is pitching a new crypto custody framework.
Bottom line: yields and the jobs number are steering the morning, while AI capital spending and merger activity keep stock-specific risk appetite alive underneath.